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Depends on what?
What a sorry group that unfortunately and perpetuity seem to always have their heads up their collective asses, BUT unfortunately cause the rest of us, who pay regular attention, and at least have enough conviction, *either way*, to make a decision, the effects of their "depends".
"Depends". Menk Yah!
the 42% for democraticks is, essentially, the entire party. the 35% for republicans is those who will remain true to the party no matter what it does. many of the 23% are former republicans who have bailed on the party because of out of control spending and generally looking like democratick lite. count me in that camp. many of these people (but not me) voted for Obama, or else didn't vote, because they saw McCain as no better on issues like immigration, environment, etc.
this is a real opportunity for the GOP, that is, IF the party can bring in conservative candidates who represent a real alternative to porkulus democraticks. the economy sucks and is getting worse. by 2010, Obama will OWN the economy. serious opposition will mean 2/3 of that 23% falls in line with the GOP. It also means maybe 3-5% from those 42% (blue dogs) bail on Obama.
This is not to say the GOP has a rosy future. far from it. the party has blown many opportunities and lost many formerly loyal members. but the numbers are still good enough to suggest that a sincere shift back to the right can lock up big wins. we just need to realize that shift.
The real problem for the Republicans is their base doesn't trust them at all. I can guarantee you one thing that was not on Democrats minds when Obama won - none were scared Democrats would get wobbly kneed and all of a sudden go along with Republicans. I can also guarantee that when Franken was installed as Senator, not one Democrat was thinking "selected, not elected" not one was thinking anything other than "good, 60 votes, now we can crush these bastards into the ground"
What's on Republicans minds?
I would bet 90% are out there thinking "what's the point, if our majorities increase we will still cave to the Democrats, they will still get everything they want just now we will have a few more from our side joining them." McCain was a perfect example of that. Had McCain won, the power grab would have been less, but 90% of what's passing now would have been passed under him.
Frankly the secret to the Democrats success after the decimation of '94 was the fact that they still acted like they ran the place. Republicans could take a lesson from that. Republicans won't get anywhere until people are really convinced the excesses under Bush are gone and they aren't just voting for Democrat light.