Karl Rove: What the numbers mean behind Tuesday's election
Karl Rove highlights this week from his Wall Street Journal column,Barack Obama was said to have redrawn the electoral map by winning Virginia last year with 53% of the vote. On Tuesday, Republican Bob McDonnell flipped the state back to the GOP, winning his election for governor with 59% of the vote. Mr. Obama carried New Jersey easily last year with 57% of the vote. This year, despite being outspent 3-to-1, Republican Chris Christie ousted Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine there by 49% to 45%. Mr. Obama carried Pennsylvania last year by 10 points. On Tuesday, Republican Judge Joan Orie Melvin was elected to the state's Supreme Court by 53% to 47%, leading a GOP sweep of six of seven statewide contests.
The trend here is that suburban and independent voters moved into the GOP column. The overall shift away from Democrats was 13 points in Virginia, 12 points in New Jersey, and eight points in Pennsylvania. Even a five-point swing in 2010 could bring a tidal wave of change. Today, Democrats enjoy 60 votes in the Senate, Republicans a mere 40. Had there been a five-point swing away from Democrats last fall, the party would have started this year with 54 seats and the Republicans 46...
.A five-point shift in 2006 would have left the GOP in control of the House. In 2008, a five-point shift would have produced a Democratic loss of six House seats rather than a gain of 21. It would also have put John McCain into the White House with 279 Electoral College votes to Mr. Obama's 259.
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How amusing.
From 60 to 0 in 10 months.
I doubt very much that Obama will be taken back by his party's losses. His level of arrogance is so high that I don't believe he will see the handwriting on the wall until election night 2012. One definition of pride is "to be lifted up as in a fog," meaning you don't see yourself clearly. It is a common malady of politicians, but Obama seems to be suffering with a severe case. This will blind him in the same way it blinds Pelosi and Reid, which means they will overreach far enough to bring about their own demise or at least their party's.
I look at Oregon and try to see what a shift would mean in the 2010 elections. The Fifh Congressional District could be taken, but that has always been possible. Taking control of the Oregon Senate is very possible, maybe even likely. The House could get closer to even.
As for the governorship, well, it could be done. That's a pretty tough nut to crack, but it could happen. The Democrats have nothing to offer but recycled old wood, but either one will have a D by his name on the ballot, and that's usually all it takes in Multnomah County where voters are apparently not capable of ignoring the party label and voting for the candidate.
That being a former 2-term governor and 2-term Secretary of State.
And the Republicans? They have Alan Alley and Chris Dudley. I'd say recycling makes sense.
You're grasping if you think differently. You just lost 2 governorships which are state elections not cherry picked districts. You can keep fiddling all you want but my firt statement will be proven in November.
Maybe you will be right next November. But you are not right at the moment.